These are today’s fantasy baseball targets based on the current data.
The goal is simple: build a strong, balanced lineup by starting with pitching, identifying high-upside team stacks, and then filling in hitters based on matchups and trends.
This is all driven by a system I’m actively testing and refining, with a focus on building consistent, winning lineups over time.
Yesterday’s Results
Cash Line: 104.3
Lineup Score: 90.1
Result: ❌ Missed Cash
Time for some adjustments.
While we did manage to cash again yesterday, the truth is we’ve had two straight slates with far too many zeroes in the lineup, and that’s something that needs to be addressed. Empty roster spots are killers in MLB DFS, especially in cash games where consistency matters more than chasing pure upside.
Honestly, the only reason we got through Saturday was Cody Bellinger going nuclear and carrying the lineup almost single-handedly. Wins are great, but relying on one player to save a flawed build is not the long-term formula we want.
So rather than ignore the warning signs, we made some meaningful upgrades to the model pipeline this week.
What We Changed
1. Fixed Hitter Handedness / Platoon Data
We found an issue where some hitter batting-hand data and opposing pitcher throwing-hand data were not being matched correctly because of naming inconsistencies. That has now been corrected.
Why this matters: platoon splits are one of the biggest edges in baseball. Left-handed bats versus weak righties, righties versus vulnerable lefties, and avoiding bad same-handed matchups all matter significantly when building lineups.
This should improve hitter projections and help us make smarter bat selections moving forward.
2. Added Trust / Bust / Consistency Metrics
We also introduced new historical reliability scores for both hitters and pitchers.
These metrics look beyond raw projections and evaluate things like:
- How often a player busts
- How often they beat projection
- How consistently they produce usable scores
- Which pitchers carry hidden risk despite strong projections
- Which hitters provide safer floors for cash games
In simple terms, we’ve upgraded from projection only to projection + reliability + risk awareness.
How We’ll Use It
These new metrics are not replacing the model projections yet. Instead, they’ll be used as tiebreakers and warning signs.
If two players project similarly, we can now lean toward:
- Higher trust scores
- Lower bust rates
- Safer pitchers
- More stable bats
And just as importantly, we can identify trap values that look good on paper but fail too often in reality.
The Goal This Week
We’ll be tracking whether these upgrades help us:
- Avoid landmines
- Reduce zeroes in the lineup
- Choose safer pitching options
- Improve article recommendations
- Increase overall cash consistency
That’s the kind of refinement process that turns a good model into a sharper one.
Now let’s get into today’s projections and recommendations.
Today’s Picks
Pitchers
Sonny Gray – P – BOS vs DET | $7800 | FD: 36.0 | Value: 10.0 | Trust: 12.1 | Bust: 75% | Quality: 0% | Smash: 0%
Dylan Cease – P – TOR vs LAA | $10400 | FD: 35.6 | Value: 6.23 | Trust: 77.1 | Bust: 0% | Quality: 75% | Smash: 25%
Jack Flaherty – P – DET vs BOS | $9000 | FD: 33.0 | Value: 6.99 | Trust: 45.8 | Bust: 50% | Quality: 50% | Smash: 0%
Seth Lugo – P – KC vs BAL | $9500 | FD: 30.5 | Value: 5.56 | Trust: 77.5 | Bust: 0% | Quality: 33% | Smash: 0%
Justin Wrobleski – P – LAD vs COL | $7600 | FD: 27.3 | Value: 6.76 | Trust: | Bust: | Quality: | Smash:
Stacks
LAD – OF – Shohei Ohtani | $4600 | FD: 20.0 | Value: 7.97 | Trust: 57.2 | Bust: 21%
LAD – OF – Kyle Tucker | $4300 | FD: 12.8 | Value: 5.76 | Trust: 60.9 | Bust: 12%
LAD – OF – Andy Pages | $4400 | FD: 10.8 | Value: 4.9 | Trust: 60.0 | Bust: 41% LAD – C – Will Smith | $3400 | FD: 10.2 | Value: 5.79 | Trust: 46.2 | Bust: 50% BAL – 1B – Pete Alonso | $3000 | FD: 14.5 | Value: 8.74 | Trust: 36.1 | Bust: 50% BAL – SS – Gunnar Henderson | $3700 | FD: 14.2 | Value: 7.15 | Trust: 61.1 | Bust: 28%
BAL – OF – Taylor Ward | $3200 | FD: 12.0 | Value: 6.97 | Trust: 54.2 | Bust: 28%
BAL – OF – Colton Cowser | $2400 | FD: 8.1 | Value: 6.42 | Trust: 26.2 | Bust: 75%
COL – OF – Jordan Beck | $3000 | FD: 11.6 | Value: 7.15 | Trust: 40.3 | Bust: 62%
COL – OF – Brenton Doyle | $2900 | FD: 10.9 | Value: 7.01 | Trust: 40.0 | Bust: 53%
COL – SS – Ezequiel Tovar | $3100 | FD: 10.1 | Value: 6.19 | Trust: 38.8 | Bust: 55%
COL – OF/C/1B – Hunter Goodman | $3500 | FD: 10.0 | Value: 5.56 | Trust: 46.1 | Bust: 42%
MIA – 2B/SS – Otto Lopez | $3400 | FD: 11.5 | Value: 6.38 | Trust: 61.6 | Bust: 21%
MIA – SS/2B – Xavier Edwards | $3400 | FD: 11.0 | Value: 6.16 | Trust: 60.8 | Bust: 30%
MIA – OF – Kyle Stowers | $3300 | FD: 9.1 | Value: 5.42 | Trust: | Bust:
MIA – C/1B – Liam Hicks | $3300 | FD: 7.5 | Value: 4.6 | Trust: 52.2 | Bust: 44% ATL – 1B – Matt Olson | $3700 | FD: 15.1 | Value: 7.53 | Trust: 66.3 | Bust: 16% ATL – 2B – Ozzie Albies | $2900 | FD: 11.0 | Value: 7.05 | Trust: 56.3 | Bust: 37%
ATL – OF – Michael Harris Ii | $2800 | FD: 10.4 | Value: 6.92 | Trust: 47.6 | Bust: 53%
ATL – 3B – Austin Riley | $3000 | FD: 9.7 | Value: 6.18 | Trust: 56.1 | Bust: 47%
Top Overall Hitters
OF – Shohei Ohtani – LAD vs COL | $4600 | FD: 20.0 | Value: 7.97 | Trust: 57.2 | Bust: 21% | Smash: 36%
3B – Junior Caminero – TB vs CIN | $3200 | FD: 18.0 | Value: 10.0 | Trust: 52.4 | Bust: 26% | Smash: 32%
1B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR vs LAA | $3100 | FD: 15.8 | Value: 9.16 | Trust: 45.5 | Bust: 37% | Smash: 21%
SS – Bobby Witt Jr. – KC vs BAL | $3100 | FD: 15.7 | Value: 9.12 | Trust: 40.5 | Bust: 42% | Smash: 26%
C – Cal Raleigh – SEA vs ATH | $3000 | FD: 15.6 | Value: 9.32 | Trust: 38.2 | Bust: 42% | Smash: 10%
OF – Kyle Schwarber – PHI vs CHC | $3700 | FD: 15.5 | Value: 7.71 | Trust: 39.2 | Bust: 50% | Smash: 17%
1B – Matt Olson – ATL vs WSH | $3700 | FD: 15.1 | Value: 7.53 | Trust: 66.3 | Bust: 16% | Smash: 47%
1B – Pete Alonso – BAL vs KC | $3000 | FD: 14.5 | Value: 8.74 | Trust: 36.1 | Bust: 50% | Smash: 11%
SS – Cj Abrams – WSH vs ATL | $4400 | FD: 14.3 | Value: 6.2 | Trust: 61.1 | Bust: 28% | Smash: 44%
SS – Gunnar Henderson – BAL vs KC | $3700 | FD: 14.2 | Value: 7.15 | Trust: 61.1 | Bust: 28% | Smash: 44%
SS – Trevor Story – BOS vs DET | $2800 | FD: 14.1 | Value: 9.06 | Trust: 43.2 | Bust: 42% | Smash: 16%
SS – Elly De La Cruz – CIN vs TB | $3800 | FD: 13.8 | Value: 6.8 | Trust: 60.3 | Bust: 26% | Smash: 42%
OF – Randy Arozarena – SEA vs ATH | $3500 | FD: 13.8 | Value: 7.29 | Trust: 54.5 | Bust: 26% | Smash: 32%
OF – Jarren Duran – BOS vs DET | $3200 | FD: 13.6 | Value: 7.8 | Trust: 51.2 | Bust: 25% | Smash: 25%
1B – Nick Kurtz – ATH vs SEA | $3000 | FD: 13.6 | Value: 8.24 | Trust: 54.5 | Bust: 26% | Smash: 32%
OF – James Wood – WSH vs ATL | $4100 | FD: 13.5 | Value: 6.27 | Trust: 71.8 | Bust: 26% | Smash: 63%
OF – Steven Kwan – CLE vs HOU | $2800 | FD: 13.5 | Value: 8.73 | Trust: 46.8 | Bust: 24% | Smash: 12%
1B – Josh Naylor – SEA vs ATH | $2400 | FD: 13.4 | Value: 9.92 | Trust: 25.0 | Bust: 67% | Smash: 0%
OF – Kyle Tucker – LAD vs COL | $4300 | FD: 12.8 | Value: 5.76 | Trust: 60.9 | Bust: 12% | Smash: 35%
OF – Riley Greene – DET vs BOS | $3100 | FD: 12.7 | Value: 7.55 | Trust: 46.0 | Bust: 40% | Smash: 20%
Top Hitters for Each Position
C – Cal Raleigh – SEA | $3000 | FD: 15.6 | Value: 9.32 | Trust: 38.2 | Bust: 42%
C – Shea Langeliers – ATH | $3600 | FD: 11.2 | Value: 5.97 | Trust: 54.2 | Bust: 28%
C – Salvador Perez – KC | $2600 | FD: 10.7 | Value: 7.56 | Trust: 26.1 | Bust: 83%
C – Will Smith – LAD | $3400 | FD: 10.2 | Value: 5.79 | Trust: 46.2 | Bust: 50%
1B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR | $3100 | FD: 15.8 | Value: 9.16 | Trust: 45.5 | Bust: 37%
1B – Matt Olson – ATL | $3700 | FD: 15.1 | Value: 7.53 | Trust: 66.3 | Bust: 16%
1B – Pete Alonso – BAL | $3000 | FD: 14.5 | Value: 8.74 | Trust: 36.1 | Bust: 50%
1B – Nick Kurtz – ATH | $3000 | FD: 13.6 | Value: 8.24 | Trust: 54.5 | Bust: 26%
2B – Gleyber Torres – DET | $2900 | FD: 12.3 | Value: 7.8 | Trust: 44.5 | Bust: 47%
2B – Jose Altuve – HOU | $3400 | FD: 12.1 | Value: 6.69 | Trust: 57.1 | Bust: 32%
2B – Otto Lopez – MIA | $3400 | FD: 11.5 | Value: 6.38 | Trust: 61.6 | Bust: 21%
2B – Nico Hoerner – CHC | $3700 | FD: 11.3 | Value: 5.88 | Trust: 67.9 | Bust: 18%
3B – Junior Caminero – TB | $3200 | FD: 18.0 | Value: 10.0 | Trust: 52.4 | Bust: 26%
3B – Maikel Garcia – KC | $3200 | FD: 11.2 | Value: 6.6 | Trust: 48.7 | Bust: 21%
3B – Alex Bregman – CHC | $2900 | FD: 10.4 | Value: 6.73 | Trust: 50.3 | Bust: 41%
3B – Ernie Clement – TOR | $2600 | FD: 10.1 | Value: 7.22 | Trust: 44.2 | Bust: 32%
SS – Bobby Witt Jr. – KC | $3100 | FD: 15.7 | Value: 9.12 | Trust: 40.5 | Bust: 42%
SS – Cj Abrams – WSH | $4400 | FD: 14.3 | Value: 6.2 | Trust: 61.1 | Bust: 28%
SS – Gunnar Henderson – BAL | $3700 | FD: 14.2 | Value: 7.15 | Trust: 61.1 | Bust: 28%
SS – Trevor Story – BOS | $2800 | FD: 14.1 | Value: 9.06 | Trust: 43.2 | Bust: 42%
OF – Shohei Ohtani – LAD | $4600 | FD: 20.0 | Value: 7.97 | Trust: 57.2 | Bust: 21%
OF – Kyle Schwarber – PHI | $3700 | FD: 15.5 | Value: 7.71 | Trust: 39.2 | Bust: 50%
OF – Randy Arozarena – SEA | $3500 | FD: 13.8 | Value: 7.29 | Trust: 54.5 | Bust: 26%
OF – Jarren Duran – BOS | $3200 | FD: 13.6 | Value: 7.8 | Trust: 51.2 | Bust: 25%